The Hedging Business

Hedge the weather, the Fed and the next shutdown.

For businesses that can't move indoors. You keep the account. We plan and watch the trade.

What a plan looks like

  • Snow removal, ChicagoMild January, no plow revenue
    Monthly snowfall under 6 inBought at 31c
  • Concrete crew, HoustonRain days stop pours
    Monthly rainfall over 5 inBought at 24c
    Expired
  • Federal subcontractor, VirginiaShutdown stops billable hours
    Shutdown on Oct 1Bought at 22c
    Open
  • Mortgage broker, PhoenixRate hike kills pipeline
    Fed hikes 25 bp in SeptemberBought at 38c
    Open
  • Citrus grower, FloridaFebruary freeze at bloom
    Daily low under 28FBought at 12c

Illustrative examples, not client results.

Who this is for

Snow and construction

A mild winter or a wet month is not an accident, so insurance won't touch it. Your revenue moves with the forecast anyway.

Pays on snowfall, rainfall, temperature

Federal contractors

Employees get back pay after a shutdown. Contractors don't. Hours stop on day one and payroll doesn't.

Pays on shutdown start and length

Mortgage brokers

Eight Fed meetings a year, and each one can empty a pipeline. Fed funds futures are not built for a ten-person shop.

Pays on hike, hold or cut

Growers

Federal crop insurance was built for corn. A freeze at bloom on a citrus grove is a gap it doesn't close.

Pays on temperature thresholds

Small lenders

Unsecured books have no swap desk. A cheap floor on a recession or an unemployment spike is the only macro cover a small lender can buy.

Pays on recession, unemployment, Fed path

Fuel-heavy operators

Trucking, landscaping, delivery, greenhouses. No surcharge clause means every 50c at the pump comes straight out of margin.

Pays on gas and natural gas prices

Not on the list? If a number in your business moves with something a market prices, we can probably cover part of it. Ask us.

How it works

  1. 1

    Exposure

    We take two years of your revenue and find the days the weather or the news cost you money. If it doesn't, we tell you and stop here.

  2. 2

    Plan

    Which contract, what strike, how many, at what price, until when. One line per trade. Written down, with the risk that stays uncovered.

Tell us what the weather costs you.

Send one email

We reply with whether a hedge exists for it, and roughly what it would cost.